Whip WHAT Now?

Gerald Ford was only President of the United States for about two and a half years. He was appointed vice president after taking over for Spiro Agnew who was forced to resign for being a crook. Ford soon after became president, completing the term of Richard Nixon, who was forced to resign for being a crook.  (“I am not a crook” notwithstanding.) The only thing I remember from Ford’s administration was that he wanted everyone to wear buttons that had the letters ‘WIN’ on them. The letters stood for ‘Whip Inflation Now.” At 12 years of age, I vaguely understood that inflation meant that candy bars were getting more expensive and that a soda that used to cost 10 cents now cost a quarter. What was less clear was how wearing a button would help keep prices down. Turns out no one else understood that either. In 1976, Ford lost the only election in which he ever ran for president. Jimmy Carter won, and inflation got worse until in 1979 Carter appointed this man the chair of the Federal Reserve and he whipped it good by jacking up interest rates until the U.S. economy went reeling into a multi-year recession and unemployment soared to more than ten percent. But a least the price of a candy bar stabilized.

The original OG candy bar

As a recent retiree, my new hobby is worrying about money. Did I save enough? Will Social Security still exist when I am ready to claim it? Will I have enough for the nursing home? If I run out, will they put me out on the street?

Now I have something else to worry about which I hadn’t even thought about since the Carter administration.  Inflation is back and badder than ever (though not worse than ever as we shall see).

During the pandemic the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, went berserk, lowering interest rates to near nothing and flooding the economy with money to prevent what one might think would be the natural effect of a world that was shutdown, a recession. It worked.

Magically, the economy of the U.S. and much of the world kept chugging along because although people weren’t eating out as much or going to shopping malls, they were doing plenty of food delivery and online shopping and thanks to Uncle Sam they had plenty to spend. People who couldn’t shift to online work lost jobs or worked and got sick, but many did just fine or even better than before. The stock market inexplicably soared.

During 2020 and much of 2021 fuel was cheap. Maybe after adjusting for inflation, it was the cheapest it has been in my lifetime. And the stock market climb made people feel rich though the gains (like this year’s losses) were mostly on paper unless you were smart enough to sell at the top or panic sold when you saw the drop.

But now with Covid seemingly over, at least practically speaking, all that money floating around combined with supply chain woes seems to have overheated things, causing inflation to ‘skyrocket’, causing the Fed to ‘tighten’, and causing investors to fear that higher interest rates will cause what we just spent the last two years trying to avoid, a recession. Is there a recession? No, not yet anyway, but people are afraid of one, which in some ways is worse than the real thing. So now the stock market is tanking and inflation is taking a bite out of people’s wages causing people to cut back on spending until recession becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But what I want to look at is how inflation is impacting the lives of average Americans. Unfortunately, I don’t have access to that data. What I do have is access to my data.

Let me tell you about my data. In 1987, my girlfriend and I had just returned from a trip around the world. On the first day of our trip we had formed a financial union combining all of our savings and now we were penniless having spent every nickel we had on a 16-month trip which took us to southern Europe, Egypt, India, Uganda, Thailand and lots of other places. Our budget was just $7 (about $18.50 today) per day and many days we spent less than half of that. Nonetheless, at some point the money ran out and we had to come home and go back to work.  When you added in our student load debt, our net worth was negative when we arrived home in May of that year.

Being the lucky man that I am, however, this girlfriend nonetheless agreed to:

1. marry me and

2. allow me to spend the entirety of our wedding gifts to buy our first computer.

We mostly got cash for wedding presents and many that were not cash went back to the store for a refund. Hence, we were able to purchase a new Apple Macintosh Plus with dual floppy drives (no hard drive), a staggering 1 megabyte of RAM, and a spiffy dot matrix printer.  At the time we had no furniture to speak of, no car, no TV. Our bookshelves were cinder blocks and plywood and we slept on a futon on the floor of a one-bedroom rental apartment without AC. We had a nice computer though, at least for its day.

Shortly after the purchase, my dad gave me an early personal finance program called Dollars & $ense and I have kept track of our expenses to the penny ever since. Sadly, some of the data was lost when I switched from that program to Quicken in 1995 but I still have more than 27 years of spending data in Quicken!

So today I want to look at inflation (at least in my experience) and see how bad it is. To do so, I created an inflation report in Quicken which compares how much I have spent on certain essential items (food, energy, whisky) this year compared to the same period a year ago. Not included are things that are highly variable like travel. We went camping down in Florida for a few weeks in January of this year but there was no similar trip in 2021 at the same time of year so we are excluding that kind of thing.

First up, Internet service. Our service through May 25 is identical to the penny as it was in 2021, $274 or $54.80 per month. Kind of a lot in my view since we have internet included as well with our cell phones but we are not paying for any cable or subscription services except for Apple TV+ which is included in my Apple Services bundle and is shared with my most of my family. We also get The Washington Post delivered old school on real paper every Sunday. Retro, I know. No inflation to see here.

Continuing on with utilities:

Electricity we have spent $399 vs. $509 last year at this time. Cooler spring, less AC, I guess? $110 less than last year.

Heating oil: 2021 $444 vs. 2022 $255! A savings of $189 this year! Damn, that’s why I was so cold all winter! We never turned the heat up past 62 F (58 at night). Admittedly, they haven’t filled the tank yet this spring as they usually do so this may change before the fall.

Cooking fuel (propane) $132 in 2021 so far this year… zero. Yeah, they also have not filled the tank this year. No idea why. I’ll probably run out of gas in the middle of making a pizza.

Cell phone cost has gone up! Last summer while my wife was trying to work on our vacation in Maine (yes, you read that right) she got sick of having our data throttled and we upgraded our plan for us and everyone on our plan (my mother, my father and his wife, my kids, their spouses, and a young man in Iowa who I just noticed on the bill) to unlimited data. The result is a cell phone bill year to date of $675, up $121 from last year. That is net of what my various family members are reimbursing us for being on the plan. Our cell phone service is more expensive than heating oil and cooking fuel combined. Maybe I should take a look at that Mint Mobile thing that Ryan Reynolds is always hawking on YouTube for just $15 a month. Anybody use this? Let me know.

Provisions is my Quicken category made up of groceries and libation (sounds better than booze). Since wine, beer and liquor can’t be sold in a grocery store in Maryland, it is easy to track the two things separately and I do.

The purpose of my life is to serve as a conduit to transfer wealth to Danny Wegman and his family.

I spend a lot of money at the grocery store. It is the single biggest item in our budget. We don’t eat out much, almost never order take out or food delivery and I only go to Starbucks for coffee if it is an actual emergency. As I consequence, I allow myself anything I want at the grocery store. I buy the best EVOO, lox at least once a month, and genuine Parmigiana Reggiano cheese at some shocking price per pound. Only the finest Irish grass-fed butter to scramble our organic, cage-free, pasture raised, pampered hen’s eggs. I buy organic fruits and vegetables. I also order insanely expensive coffee online from an outfit in California. (It works out to about $3.60 for a liter of coffee per day for me and my wife. More than the daily cost of electricity but way less than just one fancy coffee drink at Starbucks).  To be honest, I don’t look at prices when I shop. I buy whatever I want or whatever my wife wants and that’s it. Last year I spent $11,655 at the grocery store. That’s almost $1,000 a month! Holy crap! Now here we would expect to see an impact of inflation and yet somehow, I have spent $254 less at the food store than last year at this time. I am aware of only having made one change. I now eat lunch before I go to the market.  This little change has resulted in a lot less sushi in a box being purchased on hangry impulse.

My libation bill has also gone down by $342! In this case, I know exactly why. I no longer buy single malt scotch but rather bourbon which is less than half the price and which I like 86% as well. Seems a reasonable trade off.

Lastly, let’s look at the BFD that is grabbing all the headlines -- gasoline! Now before I share this number a few caveats. I don’t drive that much. I have no commute and nowhere in particular to go. If I go into DC, I take the Metro.  Otherwise, I go to the grocery story once a week, drive out to the AT for a hike, or go to see my parents who live an average of 1 hour away.

Also gas likely costs me half of what it costs you unless you have an electric car or a horse. My Honda Civic gets 47 mpg on the highway (better than my motorcycle got). I can still fill it to the tippy top for about $45 once or twice a month.

Finally, this does not count gas for road trips and travel out of town. I count that separately because it is irregular and doesn’t come at the same time year on year.

So, in 2022 I’ve spent $306 on gasoline for local use compared to $176 during the same period a year ago. This reflects an increase in the price per gallon to be sure, but I am also driving more. Still, that’s only an increase of about 90 cents a day, manageable even on my fixed income.

For everything that I am tracking here, I’ve spent $486 less than last year at this time. Yes, in spite of ‘inflation’ I’m spending less! In addition, not counted in the number above and thanks to Covid-inspired health care subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, my health insurance costs (which we pay ourselves since we have no employer plan) dropped by nearly 50% this year. I am paying less for health insurance now than I was when paying my share of my employer’s plan! Unfortunately, this won’t continue next year unless Congress extends the subsidy. I assume that won’t happen.

When I read the financial news, I learn that inflation is destroying me and threatening my ability to maintain my lifestyle and I cry but when I look at the actual numbers, they look pretty good.

Now, your experience may be different but before you panic that the sky is falling, check your own numbers. Your dollar may still be going further than the alarmists in the media would have you believe. Can’t examine your numbers because you don’t know what they are? Check out Quicken! It’s the OG personal finance software with the silly name. Or there are many other programs out there that can help you get a handle on your finances. You know you should.

My Article Problem. And Yours.

English is a strange language in so many ways. Spelling, of course. Tenses – weird. Pronunciation – unfathomable.

But some of the bewildering things that we native speakers rarely think about are articles. I am talking about the definite and indefinite kind.  Those little words “the” and “a,” the latter of which is sometimes “an.” Wha?

Now admittedly (and thankfully) our articles don’t have gender as they do in say, German.  What a morass that would be today! It’s confusing enough that our pronouns have gender. But I digress.

Here is what I am talking about.

In a restaurant we say, “I’ll have the salmon” when what we mean is I’ll have a salmon (from the presumably many in the kitchen.) It should be indefinite but we use the definite.

But then we say, I’ll have a glass of red wine or I’ll have a(n) IPA. Seems correct but also inconsistent.

Americans say, “Sally is in the hospital.” (speedy recovery, Sally!), which seems right since he, she, they (I don’t know what pronouns Sally prefers) is in a particular hospital. But the Brits say, “Sally is in hospital.” dropping the article entirely. But only in the case of hospital. They don’t say, “Nigel is in coffee shop.”

In New York City the four of the Boroughs are always referenced without articles as one might expect for place names. “I was born in Queens.” But my mother was born in the Bronx.

You may have never noticed this, but Apple has strict rules for its executives about how they use articles with regard to certain products at events or when speaking in public. At the annual September event where they roll out new products, Tim Cook will say, “Now let’s talk about iPhone.” or “We want to announce some exciting changes to Apple Watch.” But Tim will say “We have some incredible updates to the Mac.” They even had an event themed, “Back to the Mac” a few years ago.

How about, “Translated from the Russian.” As if “Translated from Russian” would be unclear exactly which Russian you meant?

I bet you can come up with some more examples. I don’t know what to make of this articular jumble. I am just a humble English lit major. The nuances and subtleties of grammar are above my pay grade. My task is simply to show these peculiarities to you. Now that I have, you will never be able to not notice them.

You’re welcome.

Maximizing Minimalism

The idea of minimalism has always appealed to me in concept. The idea of making due with just the few essential items that one needs or wants and nothing more is quite attractive. I have gone through multiple bouts of organizing and decluttering, and though I am fairly well organized and have (mostly) avoided hoarding old newspapers and such, I still have a lot of material accumulation. I am not talking about valuable paintings or a garage full of classic cars, but more sentimental items that I can’t bring myself to get rid of, or backup parts for things that might get lost or need to be replaced but probably won’t. 

For example, a few years ago one of the little rubber feet for my stand mixer went missing, causing the mixer to wobble back and forth on the counter like a table in a cheap bistro. I could only find a full set of five available for purchase and though they were not expensive, I still have four left sitting in a drawer against an unlikely future in which I lose another of those feet. You know as well as I that as long as I have those spare parts, the feet are secure. The moment I throw them out, one will disappear. Of course, Marie Kondo says toss ‘em; they don’t ‘spark joy’. “If you need another, buy it again,” but my frugal side won’t permit this. 

So I have come to enjoy what I think of as short-term minimalism in the form of travel. In 1986, Barbara and I hopped on board a People Express flight ($99 D.C. to Brussels) and began a 16-month trip around the world with just a backpack each. Inside were all the clothes we would need for every kind of weather, sleeping bags and pads, a tent, a cook stove, and a set of pots. This kit took us from the sweltering heat of the Negev Desert to below freezing temperatures at the top of Mt. Kenya. 

More recently, I have been determined to never fly anywhere regardless of how long a trip with more than will fit in an overhead bin. I’ve spent a month in Israel with a carry-on bag. 

Now, as Barbara wraps up her final months of regular employment, we are beginning to prepare for the ultimate road trip and the question of exactly what we should, what we can, take with us is at the fore. 

In case you missed it, back in the summer of 2020, we were shopping for a camping solution. My old bones do not enjoy sleeping on the ground as much as they once did. Truth be told, they never enjoyed it all that much. We looked at tiny teardrop campers, Casitas, truck slide-ins, and even old VW Hippie Vans. None seemed quite right for us. We didn’t want to tow something and my conscience won’t allow me to drive something that has horrible fuel economy, even when, at the time, gas was around $2.25 a gallon. (Our Honda Civic gets 45 mpg on the highway.)

As we were preparing to drive home from a long visit with the kids in Colorado, we stopped to check out the work of a guy we’d found who converts Toyota Sienna minivans into Campers. He calls his company Oasis Campervans. One look and we knew we had found our solution. We drove home, bought a used Sienna and drove back to Colorado. Three weeks later we had our camper. 

You probably know what a Toyota Sienna is, maybe you even have/had one. It is the classic soccer mom car. But though it is roomy for a car, as an RV it is, well, compact. Our has room for us to lie down at night and for the two of us to sit at a tiny table when in ‘day mode.’ Under the rear hatch there is a ‘kitchen,’ though for safety we have to move the stove out to a table to cook. But, our ‘RV’ drives like a car, parks like a car, and it gets 27 mpg on the highway. Not as good as the Civic but also not shameful. 

So far, we have traveled the length of New York State (with Barbara on a bicycle and me following along) and to Maine and back. This summer we are planning to go a little further afield by driving to Alaska. 

Yes, it’s really far. 

The distance and the length of time we will be on the road, means we need to be very thoughtful about what we bring. We have limited space and we just can’t bring it all. Decisions must be made and many of these go to the heart of my identity. 

For example, I have decided that we will leave behind the handblown glass Chemex Coffee brewer with which I prepare my coffee every morning, replacing it with a folding silicon pour-over filter holder that can make coffee directly into an insulated bottle. Less clear is whether I can survive without a coffee grinder, and drink pre-ground coffee for the duration. It would save precious space, but pre-ground coffee? Yikes! And is it even possible to make coffee without a kitchen scale? 

And those are just the issues around coffee! Still in question is the exact make-up of the rest of our batterie de cuisine. Should we bring the cast iron skillet AND the stainless-steel pan or just one of the two? Can we manage without a whisk? How many saucepans are required? What spices are essential and what can we live without. How much Diamond Crystal Salt is enough? 

Clothes present similar questions. The number of changes of underwear determine the days one can go without finding a laundromat. But the more changes of clothing, the more space they take. We need clothes for all weather. Alaska is wet and even in the summer it can be cold. We also need bulky items like hiking boots, rain gear, day packs and, of course, assorted computers, iPads and various technology. Room must also be found for bedding, pillows, lanterns, fuel for the stove, and a reasonable amount of reading material.

I actually love this process. I have often said that my favorite parts of travel are packing the van before the trip and unpacking it when we get home. I am joking, of course. Somewhat. I think I am not alone in the joy I feel arriving home after a long trip. But there is something challenging, even exciting, about the process of considering what you really need and what you can do without. Each item is carefully considered. Is there something smaller that can replace it? 

Of course, we can buy anything we need on the road but to me, buying something, even something inexpensive, that we already had but left at home represents a kind of failure, even if it is just a bottle of aspirin. I wasn’t as prepared as I should/could have been.

A friend who once owned a Sienna but no longer does offered me the old roof carrier still inhabiting his garage. It is tempting. We would be able to fill it with all kinds of items that we might need. It would dramatically expand the room for ‘just in case.’ But I am trying to avoid this. A roof carrier would no doubt lower our gas mileage a bit and feels like something of a cop out. It would also slightly detract from our stealth as a campervan. 

Departure is still more than a month away and there are still many weeks to whittle away at the supplies to pack and unpack many times to see exactly where each item should go. 

Travel is the best of both worlds. It’s an opportunity to rough it. A chance to understand what possessions are most essential to your comfort and happiness, all the while knowing you will eventually return home where all your spare parts live, where you never have to commit to just one skillet, and where your coffee will always be ground just before brewing.